With high inventory and a hesitant buying public, pressure on Malibu home values pushed prices down from a median value of $2,300,000 in 2010 to an even $2 million last year.
That is a 13 percent drop. The high median was achieved in 2008, at $3,225,000. Based on that number, values have plummeted 38 percent during the real estate downturn.
For the sixth year in a row, home sale units failed to hit 200, falling well short at about 156 sales in 2011. The past four years have seen a sales pace that is the worst since the early 1990s. The average year over the past 10 years saw 212 homes sold, but that figure is something of a mirage. No year since 2005 has come close.
The chart on page A11 tracks sales in every Malibu neighborhood, particularly during the sluggish past four years. By comparison, a notation of the best year during 2004-2007 is shown for each neighborhood, based on the highest number of sales for the year.
The dollar volume of the 156 sales was $446 million, much lower than 2010 and the second-lowest volume since 1996. The average sale price of all sales was $2,860,000, which is 42 percent less than the 2007 average sale price.
The statistics herein are compiled via regular reviews of the local Multiple Listing Service as well as frequent reviews of public records for every single-family home of one to four units in the 90265 ZIP code. Condominium and mobile homes are not included.
The lower volume and reduced sale averages are a result of the upper end turning cold in Malibu during 2011. Only 24 beach sales transpired. Essentially, the 2011 results were only slightly better than 2009 numbers, across the board. For example, only 22 beach properties sold in 2009.
The chart is meant to show general trends of prices and may not be reflective of true average neighborhood values, based on sales that were unusually high or low. Still, several trends can be derived:
- Particularly, almost every neighborhood shows distinctly lower prices from the high year, 2008, when the free fall began.
- Neighborhoods that in the lower price ranges largely went flat beginning in 2008 are starting to see more activity in recent years, as prices at the lower end begin to firm.
- Beach locales and neighborhoods with higher prices have generally slowed their sales pace, as the slowdown moved up the price ladder the past couple of years.
- Sales are so few that many neighborhoods go entire years now without any data to work from.
The inventory of homes for sale has been creeping up steadily each year. In Dec. 2007 it was 166 homes for sale. This past month saw 257 homes listed, though earlier in the year it topped 300. Supply and demand factors, as long as buyers remain relatively few, virtually assure lower prices to come.
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